No betting system can consistently beat casino games of pure chance such as craps, but that does not stop hopeful gamblers believing in them. One of the best known systems is the Martingale in which the player starts by betting $1 and doubles his bet whenever he loses. Upon winning, he starts over at $1. The idea is to realize a net win of $1 after every eventual win. This system fails because the player will either run out of money after having to double his bet several times in a row after a streak of losing bets, or he will be unable to bet the amount dictated by the system because it would exceed the maximum bet allowed by the casino.
Other systems depend on the gambler’s fallacy, which in craps terms is the belief that past die rolls influence the probabilities of future die rolls. For example, the gambler’s fallacy indicates that a craps player should bet on 11 if an 11 has not appeared in the last 20 rolls. In reality, each roll of the dice is an independent event, so the probability of rolling an 11 is exactly 1/18 on every roll, even if 11 has not come up in the last 100 rolls.
Parity Hedge System
The parity hedge system is a hoax promulgated by Quatloos. Despite the fact that no such system exists (indeed, it is a mathematical impossibility), several gambling-related web sites have retold the ‘parity hedge’ story without attribution.
Another approach is to “set” the dice, by throwing them in such a way that one or both will be more likely to show certain numbers. Unlike other systems, this one is not mathematically absurd, because if it were possible to alter the probabilities of each outcome, then winning systems could be devised. Nevertheless, the casinos take steps to prevent this. The dice are supposed to hit the back wall of the table, which disrupts the controlled spin. Some people offer to teach dice-setting skills, for a substantial fee, but there are no independent verifications that such methods can be successfully applied in a real casino. Frank Scoblete and Stanford Wong, authors of books that feature dice control techniques, believe that it is possible to alter the odds in the player’s favor by dice control.
Beyond simply dice setting, the theory of dice control or dice influencing purports that the actual throwing of the dice can be performed in a fashion controlled enough to alter the odds of the games in the player’s favor. Whether it is possible for human beings to consistently exercise the precise physical control necessitated by the theory is not agreed upon universally. But there is a small but dedicated community of controlled shooters that maintain records and claim proof of dice influencing in casino conditions.
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