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Kosovo, the Pandora’s box

Pandora's box

France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, the states of the old USSR… almost all the European countries have provinces in the same situation with the Serbian province Kosovo. The European Union would be a solution. But the independence of the provinces is a solution too.

I think that the Kosovo’s independence is less a result of their population or Albania’s lobby, and more of a US lobby. And the European countries accepted it. More than this, this is a possible solution for the countries that lost territories after the World War II. It is a geopolitical strategy, and the start for a new geography of the world, especially in Europe. Here, I agree with Vladimir Putin.

I do not know if it is good or bad.

Some time ago I wrote a fictional scenario about the global warming and how it will influence the geopolitical strategies of all the developed countries. These actions fit with that scenario.

4 Responses

  1. Nicolae
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    Hi Frank,

    I hope you are right about Transylvania (in fact, just a smaller area including three counties).

    US HAS to be concerned with all the major problems worldwide, as long as it is from far the most powerful country. Just to take into account and try to understand the situation from the point of view of all the implied parts, not to try to adapt the situations to its own specific.

    I agree with you about the EU.

    I hope again that I was wrong about the way Kosovo get its independence (in fact, as far as I know, Kosovo never was a state by itself, so this is a very strange situation, and a precedent for any other area), but I’m afraid that we will see in the near future that the independence of the Kosovo it is not a solution. I think that there was no very good solution for Kosovo, but this one is one of the worst solutions. Not for Kosovo, but for Europe, Canada, and many other countries.

  2. Frank
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    Dear Nikolae,

    i seriously doubt that your prediction regarding transilvania will come true.

    I never said that it is the US’ business to take care of all problems in the world. However, when EU completely failed to handle the situation in its own backyard, the US stepped in.
    I only said that due to their interest in other parts of the world and the overstretch of their ressources, they happily leave the Balkans to EU – as long as EU follows a path similar to the US interests.

    I also never said anything about the question wether the declaration of independence is justiefied or legitimate or not. I only say that I don’t see any other solution in the given situation. The seperation happened ten years ago but an eternal UN protectorate could not be the answer.

  3. Nicolae
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    Hi Frank,

    Maybe you will remember this comment in some months when, if you are interested in Balkans, you will heard more about the Székely Land, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sz%C3%A9kely_Land. This is just an example, from Romania, that I know the best.

    As for Kosovo, it is not about its geostrategic importance. It is just a piece, like in billiard, or like a toothed wheel in a mechanism.

    About the US contribution in Balkans, I have my own opinions that are different of yours.

    I understand from your comments that you consider that US have to take care of all the main problems in the world. I agree with you, as the most important power, but I strongly disagree to impose its own politics without taking into account other opinions.

    Now, that you speak about the decision of the Kosovo people for the independence, let’s imagine that there is a small area within Kosovo populated by a majority of Serbians that want their own independence. Do you agree that that area has the right to its own independence? And within that area, a even small area of Albanians that want their own independence, a.s.o. Is there a specific standard for which areas can declare their own independence?

    What I want to say it is that the Kosovo independence it is not their own problems, but a more general one, about the specific conditions when a group of people can declare its own independence.

  4. Frank
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    I agree with you, that Kosovo independence means a big step – and we all, nobody! – knows what can be the consequences e.g. regarding Transnistria or Abchasia.

    I strongly disagree your comparison with Poland, Italy, France or Romania. The only case it might have some parallels with is the bask country in Spain. However, the circumstances are very different.

    Finally, knowing the Balkans a little for almost 15 years and having discussed politics with people from there very often, i am still regularly amused about in parts really wild conspiracy theories presented. Nobody could explain me yet where the geostrategic importance of Kosovo, an overpopulated dry piece of land with a poor education system and hardly and economic base far away from coverage by means of traffic could be found.

    I also cannot see that the US would care much about the Balkans, they stepped in as the Europeans found themselves helpless. In Bosnia they did there best – and we all see that it does not suffice. Now they have other problems like Afghanistan and – first of all! – Iraque, which cannot be solved without doing something about the Middle East. This – together with the incidents happening continuously here and there on the globe – is already more than the US could manage.

    The US happily left the Western Balkans to the Europeans and their decisions. Yes, they are in favour of simple decisions as Kosovo independence is one and without this US position, the majority in Europe for this step would at least not be so overwhelming. However, I doubt that after almost a decade of the UN protectorate any other solution exists.

    The Kosovo population must take own responsibility finally. After seperation from Serbia and after the decade of surpression by Serbia democracy and self government under Serbian souvereignty is simply no option. Not only because it is unacceptable to the Kosovo people. But also because Serbia is absolutly not capable to even solve the problems of Kosovo in addition to the own ones

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